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Patrick E. Guinan
University of Missouri
School of Natural Resources
(573) 882-5908

Missouri Weather Outlook for the Week Ahead

Patrick E. Guinan
University of Missouri
(573) 882-5908

April 6, 2022

minute read

Air temperatures may drop 15 to 20 degrees below average through the first part of the weekend. Potential frost on Saturday morning could become problematic for plants already in the ground or trees in bloom. Hopefully we are near the end of these frosts. For most of the state we are at or past the historical median date of the last moderate spring freeze (≤28°F) (Figure 1).

Median Date Spring Temperature ≤28°F – Period of Record 1981-2010
Note: Frost/Freeze dates will likely vary each year and can depend on local conditions.
Median Date = There is a 50% chance a temperature ≤°F will occur after the designated date.

map of Missouri

Figure 1 Image and more information available on the Frost Freeze Guide (ipm.missouri.edu/frostfreezeguide/)

Temperatures will warm next week with high's creeping into the 70's. However, below normal air temperatures to the west and above normal air temperatures to the east set us up for a potentially stormy weather pattern to start next Monday (Figure 2). It's setting up to be an interesting week.

two maps of Missouri

Figure 2 Outlook on air temperature and precipitation for the period April 11-15, 2022. Source: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

Soil temperatures have fluctuated from the 22-year mean, even dipping to the mid-40's at the start of the month (Figure 3) and will likely cool again over the weekend. As we get antsy to get in the field, do not forget that soil temperatures and not air temperatures control seed germination. Find the minimum and maximum daily soil temperatures for your region can be found at: http://agebb.missouri.edu/weather/reports/soilTemp2.asp.


Figure 3 Soil temperature trends in mid-Missouri based on data generated by Missouri Mesonet stations.

Image of tractor and planter with incoming storm courtesy of sam22kendrick via Instagram.

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REVISED: April 7, 2022