Taking an environmentally sensitive approach to pest management


SUBSCRIBE
AUTHOR

Ben Brown
University of Missouri
Division of Applied Social Sciences
bpbrown@missouri.edu

Big Corn Acres, Big Crush Volumes, and Big Concerns

Ben Brown
University of Missouri
bpbrown@missouri.edu

October 16,2025

minute read

Originally published in Today's Farmer

The September 2025 USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report delivered several market-moving updates, with implications for both domestic and global grain markets. From a surprise increase in U.S. corn acreage to record-setting soybean crush figures and historically tight global corn supplies outside the U.S. and China, the report paints a complex picture for the 2025/26 marketing year

U.S. Corn Supply Surges on Acreage Expansion

One of the most surprising developments in the September WASDE was the upward revision of U.S. corn planted acreage. The USDA now estimates 2025/26 planted corn acreage at 98.7 million acres, an increase of 1.4 million acres from August and the highest total since 1933. This unexpected jump, combined with a national average yield of 186.7 bushels per acre, pushes projected U.S. corn production to a record 16.814 billion bushels.

When factoring in beginning stocks and imports, total U.S. corn supply for 2025/26 is now estimated at 18.165 billion bushels. This abundant supply has created a bearish undertone in the corn market, even as demand remains strong. The USDA raised corn export projections to a record 2.975 billion bushels, citing robust early-season sales and growing international demand. However, ending stocks are still forecast at a hefty 2.110 billion bushels, keeping pressure on prices.

Soybean Crush Sets Records, Domestic Outlook Remains Strong

While corn supply is surging, soybeans are seeing strength in domestic processing. The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported a record August soybean crush of 189.8 million bushels, exceeding even the most optimistic trade expectations. This brings the total crush for the 2024/25 marketing year to 2.304 billion bushels, a 6% increase year over year.

Soybean meal and oil production have followed suit. August soybean oil use was estimated at over 2.4 billion pounds, setting a new monthly record. Soybean meal production reached 4.513 million short tons, with yields per bushel also trending higher. These figures support the USDA’s decision to raise 2025/26 soybean crush projections in the September WASDE, reflecting continued strength in domestic demand for both meal and oil.

Despite the bullish crush data, soybean exports face headwinds from increased competition in South America and lack of Chinese soybean purchases. As of mid-September, China had purchased zero bushels of U.S. soybeans for the 2025/26 marketing year with coverage deep into November. As a result, the USDA trimmed export projections by 20 million bushels, raising ending stocks to 300 million bushels.

Global Corn Trade: Tightest Supplies in 30 Years Outside the U.S. and China

While the U.S. is flush with corn, the global picture tells a different story. The September WASDE reduced global corn production by 2 million metric tons, primarily due to weather-related yield losses in the European Union and Russia. In contrast, Brazil’s corn production was revised upward to 135 million metric tons, nearing record levels.

However, when excluding the U.S. and China, who are largely self-sufficient in corn, the rest of the world is facing the tightest corn supply relative to use in at least 30 years. This tightening is driven by increased ethanol demand in several countries and limited exportable supplies from traditional exporters.

This scarcity is a key reason why U.S. corn exports are expected to hit a new record in 2025/26 at 2.975 billion bushels. With global buyers seeking reliable sources, the U.S. is well-positioned to fill the gap, especially with competitive pricing and ample supply.

bar graph

World days of corn supply available with and without China and U.S. (Data Source: Author Calculation using USDA Foreign Ag Service Data)


Subscribe to receive similar articles sent directly to your inbox!

   About IPM     Contact Us    Subscribe     Unsubscribe

Copyright © 2025 — Curators of the University of Missouri. All rights reserved. DMCA and other copyright information. An equal opportunity/access/affirmative action/pro-disabled and veteran employer.

Printed from: https://ipm.missouri.edu
E-mail: IPM@missouri.edu

REVISED: October 16, 2025